Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Oh the Webs We Weave...

There are three interesting points that really mess up picking who is going to be the Democratic candidate for President. I'm a political junkie who actually enjoys debating the strategy behind the election more than discussing the issues. Mostly because the issues are of no value in these types of elections. We should focus more on character.



First, the Edwards factor. He will continue to pile up delegates so long as he wins fifteen percent of the vote in any given primay. If the race is a close in August as it is now, someone is going to have to give Edwards something pretty good to get those delegates.



Second, the "Super-Delegates." The super-delegates actually take power away from the people. If Obama wins the majority of delegates through popular vote in primaries but loses because of super-delegate votes, the Democratic Party will look foolish. After all, the proportional voting system was supposed to encourage minority representation, while super-delegates are all about putting the power in the hands of the party elite.



Lastly, Florida and Michigan. Both states had their delegates stripped because they violated party rules by holding their primaries too early. But, once again, if the race is close, you will actually have canidates of the same party making legal arguments for and against the inclusion of these delegates. How fascinating is that?



All of these factors can work for and aginst the Democrats. Clearly, the focus is currently on Obama and Clinton. They will want to use that publicity for as long as they can. But, if Clinton "unfairly" wins the nomination because of super-delegates, that could drive Obama supporters to vote for McCain. Truly, this will be a fascinating turn of events that I will watch very closely.

Monday, February 11, 2008

What the Hell is a Super-Delegate, Anyway?

I mean, do they get to wear a cool uniform to the convention or something? And why the hell are there so many more Democrat delegates as opposed to Republicans?

There are no rational answers to most of these questions, but basically a "super-delegate" is a Democrat office holder(Senator, Congressman, Governor) or party member who can hold the candidates by the short hairs by pledging their vote to the other candidate. They vote at the convention for whomever they please, regardless of how their states vote. It's really kind of cool when you think about it, but most people do not take the time to understand how they work or why they're around at all, so they have an animus toward it. Sort of like hockey in the South.

The super-delegates are a response to the dimished power the party leaders held after the changes of the McGovern-Fraser Commission were instituted--see, simple, right?
Delegates used to be chosen in secret after caucuses were held by the party leaders of the state, giving no true power to the voters, and especially dimishing the vote of minorities. So the commission comes along and says that delegates have to represent, proportionally, the percentage of votes the candidates received.

This left the party leaders feeling vulnerable, so they created the unpledged delegates made up of elected officials and party leaders. They represent approximately 20 percent of all the delegates, so, in a close race, like this one, the super-delegates hold a great deal of power, especially the ones who wait to the last minute to endorse a candidate. Some super-delegates hold no power, like Joe Liebermann whose super-delegate status was stripped when he endorsed John McCain. Tough luck, Joe, but you know the Democratic Party has no use for a man who votes his conscience instead of toeing the party line.

The Republicans have a similar group but they represent only around five percent of the total delegates, so their impact is not as powerful. As well, nobody seems to know what the hell is going to happen with the Michigan or Florida delegates, so this whole thing could blow up in our faces worse then Dade County in 2000. God, I love politics.

Friday, February 8, 2008

Ain't Life Grand?

In nine months we will have to choose between John McCain and Hillary Clinton. I'll let that sink in for a few moments...

Wow. I can't believe that's what rises to the top of the political heap these days.

Hillary Clinton, running on her experience(8 years as a senator, but more than 25 as a politician's wife) even though she's the junior senator in her own state! Oh my goodness that's quite an impressive resume. She cares so much about children and health care, but she was on the board of directors for Wal-Mart, a corporation not exactly known for the benefits to lower and middle class workers. She campaigns against the War in Iraq, but voted for the use of force resolution. She's done a fine job of playing both ends against the middle as she portrayed herself as a moderate who supported President Bush early in his administration, but now attacks him as she has become the candidate for change(although Obama has pretty much stolen that banner from her right now).

And then there's McCain, a wolf in sheep's clothing if I've ever seen one. Goverenor Schwarzenegger praised his skills in cutting spending all of his years in Congress. Great job on that $3 trillion budget, Senator! Many applaud his apparent integrity, until they recall the Keating Five and McCain's involvement. He's definitely a conservative on family values: unlike Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh, McCain has only been married twice. But I do agree with on the need to reform immigration laws. But I think that we need to secure the borders first, then decide what we do with the ones we allow in. By focusing on guest worker programs, McCain has put the cart before the horse.

McCain vs. Clinton... Where's McGovern when you need him?